Pay attention to the introduction of regulation ru

Glass futures prices increased positions and fell. Pay attention to the introduction of regulation rules

[fundamentals]

1. International news: consumer confidence and new home sales data released in the United States have declined, but house prices and durable goods orders have performed strongly, market optimism has increased, US stocks closed higher, and the Dow Jones index has set a record high closing record

2. Domestic: according to the national development and Reform Commission, China's improved refined oil pricing mechanism will reduce the price adjustment cycle to 10 working days and eliminate the range limit of up and down 4%. Zhuochuang information and Xinhua News Agency confirmed on the 26th that the retail price of refined oil will be reduced in the early morning of the 27th, and the price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 310 yuan/ton and 300 yuan/ton respectively

3. Guangzhou held a press conference yesterday, saying that the government was reviewing the regulation rules and preliminarily proposed that the rise of house prices should not be higher than the rise of GDP and the rise of per capita disposable income of urban residents. At the two sessions in Guangzhou at the beginning of this year, the expectations of the above two indicators were 10% and 11% respectively

comments: after the release of the detailed rules of the "five national regulations" of Guangdong Province, although our analysis of the impact on the market is relatively neutral, considering that the curtain of property market regulation across the country will gradually open in the later stage, and various regions will gradually publish the detailed rules of regulation and control, which still has a certain drag on the market. At the same time, after the provincial rules are published, the possibility of more stringent rules in some key cities cannot be ruled out. The adjustment of the personal income tax on second-hand housing transactions is still the key to affect the nerves of the market. In the previous report, we have repeatedly reminded investors to be vigilant about the new risk points that may be caused by the local regulation rules at the end of March. In the short term, market confidence was slightly hit

4. Glass index: according to the statistical data of the three major indexes of China Glass information, as of March 26, 2013, China's glass composite index was 1068.61, down 0.42 points from the reading of the previous period; China glass price index 1042.93 points, down 0.48 points from the previous reading; China Glass confidence index was 1171.34 points, down 0.19 points from the previous reading. The three glass indexes remained weak on Monday

5. For a period of time approaching the end of March and the beginning of April, the four production lines ignited in the early stage will be put into operation gradually. In terms of the whole industry, the new production capacity will be put into operation earlier than expected, and in terms of quantity alone, it is also considerable compared with recent years. The two factors of new production capacity and slow increase in demand are superimposed, which puts some pressure on the upward price of the short-term spot market. At present, the market has entered a relatively sensitive period. The increase of new production capacity and short-term real estate regulation trigger relatively pessimistic expectations. Prices are slightly deadlocked and confidence is slightly insufficient

6. Raw materials: on March 26, zhuochuang information fuel oil price index continued to decline, which was affected by the low oil price in the early stage, and the decline of refined oil was almost certain. The domestic fuel market was weak, and the downturn in trading had not been substantially improved. The petroleum coke index was flat. The commodity index of soda ash is flat, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The soda ash market widely used in aerospace, petrochemical, machinery manufacturing, plastic rubber, ceramic building materials, metal materials, construction engineering and other industries in China continues to be depressed, and the market in most regions is still low. And driven by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong, and most downstream purchase on demand. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of light soda in Henan is yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda in Sichuan is 1350 yuan/ton. The manufacturer's operating load is high. The soda ash market in Chongqing is depressed, and the mainstream ex factory price of heavy soda is 1300 yuan/ton, resulting in poor demand

[market review]

after the glass 09 contract opened slightly lower on Tuesday, the position was increased to 1463, but it was obvious that the resistance force of the bulls was insufficient. After rebounding slightly to 1466, it was suppressed by the short force to below 1460. In the afternoon, the short force was still not weak, and the lowest futures price fell to 1452 yuan/ton. The intraday increase in positions was as high as more than 60000 hands. In the late afternoon, the position was quickly reduced to close at 1458 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily increase in positions was about 34000 hands. The dragon and tiger list shows that long and short positions have increased, and the main positions of short positions are more than long positions

[operation strategy]

yesterday's Morning Post reminded investors to pay attention to the directional breakthrough after the intraday position change. On Tuesday, the glass futures price rebounded for several consecutive days and then reappeared the callback trend. Technically, it was again subject to the moving average system. Today's glass futures price may be reversed after trying to dip, but if the short position force is strong, the possibility of increasing positions and breaking support cannot be ruled out. Upward pressure 14651475; Downward support 14551445. In terms of operation, short-term short selling is the main thing, and the increase of positions can be followed appropriately. In case of support and stabilization, the short order will be reduced. Glass futures price focuses on the linkage of Shanghai Stock Exchange and thread trend. For reference only

(source: international trade futures, author: zhangbaohui) the content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. In the elastic segment, investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () department

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