Domestic and foreign troubles coexist in the hotte

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Domestic and foreign troubles coexist in the photovoltaic industry, and the market prospect may lie in "determination"

recently, favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry have been blowing. First, the State Grid Corporation of China issued a high-profile "opinions on doing a good job in distributed photovoltaic power generation and service", which reduced the photovoltaic power generation and access fee. Then came the news that the national energy administration was preparing the implementation measures and tariff subsidy standards for distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration areas, and distributed photovoltaic power generation for self use is expected to receive a subsidy of 0.6 yuan per kWh

it is learned that relevant persons from the national energy administration have expressed their support for photovoltaic power generation subsidies on more than one public occasion

based on this, industry optimists predict that the photovoltaic industry has warmed up and is expected to return to its original high-speed development level in the middle of 2013. Lu Yanwu, director of the photovoltaic Professional Committee of Beijing new and Renewable Energy Association, believes that the government's continuous statements have brought some warmth to the industry, which is also conducive to promoting the development of the industry in the long run, but he does not support the "recovery" theory

domestic and foreign troubles coexist in the photovoltaic industry

"a complete recovery, I don't think so", Lu Yanwu said faintly in an interview. In his view, the current photovoltaic industry has both internal and external problems, and the industry is facing many adverse factors as it heats up again

since last year, China's photovoltaic power generation industry has been continuously investigated by European and American countries. In October last year, seven photovoltaic enterprises including Solarworld in the United States took the lead in asking the U.S. Department of Commerce to impose more than 100% tariffs on solar panels imported from China. Not long ago, the final result of the US double anti dumping investigation was released, and many Chinese enterprises lost the most important US market, while Wuxi Suntech, the leading enterprise in the domestic photovoltaic industry, finally faced a punitive tariff of up to 36%

at present, the EU's anti-dumping investigation on China's photovoltaic industry is also in progress, and the EU is likely to follow the example of the United States to issue high punitive tariffs in the future. It is reported that India is also interested in conducting an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese solar cell modules

the original overseas market of China's photovoltaic products is constantly being squeezed. It is understood that as Germany, Italy, Spain and other major photovoltaic product importing countries, with the deepening of the European debt crisis, photovoltaic subsidies continue to shrink, which directly leads to the sharp discount of China's photovoltaic product exports

in July this year, the domestic listed company Hairun photovoltaic once announced that "Schott group of Germany announced that it would successively stop the production of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products under schottsolarag this year, and Schott solar will focus more on the research and development of high-efficiency battery modules". Schott solar is one of the major customers of Hairun PV. Affected by this, the share price of Hairun photovoltaic fell at the same time, and was slashed by half

the domestic situation is even worse. According to Lu Yanwu, at present, the vicious competition in the domestic photovoltaic market is very serious, and most projects are usually won at low prices. After winning the bid, the project will be constructed and operated at a lower cost, without power generation efficiency and quality. In this environment, even some large enterprises that have participated in the construction of the Qinghai Tibet railway project have to lose

the downturn and disorderly competition in the industry have made many enterprises finally embark on the road of restructuring and even changing production

relying on foreign markets is a weakness

"the development of the photovoltaic industry really needs serious reflection", Lu Yanwu said. "In previous years, the photovoltaic industry was so hot that photovoltaic power generation projects were launched everywhere, and now hot money is constantly concentrated in this industry.". It is said that Lu Yanwu received it not long ago, and the other party directly asked "what roofs can be used to build photovoltaic power stations in Beijing". He said that the current market investment is irrational, and there is no need to have enough understanding of the current situation of the development of the photovoltaic industry

according to statistics, the output of photovoltaic cells in mainland China reached 10million kW in 2010, accounting for more than 50% of the global market share. Among them, the output of photovoltaic cells of five enterprises ranks among the top 10 in the world, and they are truly large capacity countries

"the development route of China's photovoltaic industry is very special," Lu Yanwu said. "We are following a route of domestic flowering and foreign fragrance". After 2000, benefiting from the new energy policies of European and American countries, China's photovoltaic industry has made rapid progress, and the growth of enterprise profits has remained at more than 100% for many years. The most prominent representative is Suntech Wuxi, which was listed in the United States in 2005 and was popular in the market. Its share price once hit a sky high price of more than $90

"both ends of our photovoltaic industry are abroad, the core components and users are abroad, and only raw material production, assembly and processing are completed in China." Lu Yanwu said, "the simple processing mode and market channel lead to the downstream of the photovoltaic industry closely attached to the foreign market. The proportion of the domestic market is very small. In 2011, among the total installed capacity of 3.6 gigawatts of photovoltaic power generation in China, the installed scale of distributed photovoltaic power generation was only 0.2 gigawatts. This is even more insignificant compared with China's total installed capacity of 1billion kilowatts"

he pointed out that under such conditions, once the foreign market changes, the domestic manufacturing enterprises must be the first to be impacted. The domestic market scale is not enough to support the existing capacity scale, and enterprise bankruptcy is inevitable. It is understood that Wuxi Suntech's share price is now less than $1, and the company's losses are seriously at stake

the market prospect may lie in the "determination"

"the policies that may be issued by national companies, including the national energy administration, will help enterprises to a certain extent, but the effect remains to be further observed", Lu Yanwu said, "if I estimate that the government subsidy of 1.8 yuan per degree can really make enterprises profitable and the industry can continue to develop"

Lu Yanwu calculated an account, "a photovoltaic power station has a service life of 25 years. If the project cost of 15 yuan per peak watt is calculated, the subsidy is 1.8 yuan, and the enterprise can recover the cost in about 10 years. This also ensures that it is normal during this period, and there is no power cut". "According to the subsidy of 0.6 yuan proposed now, plus the existing electricity price, if it is self use and spontaneous, it is equivalent to a subsidy of 1 yuan. In this way, it may take 15 years to recover the cost. There are also factors such as loan interest in the enterprise cost, and it is really difficult to recover the cost without 20 years. With such a low subsidy, where will there be any return on investment?"

in recent years, China has built many large-scale photovoltaic power plants, but there are also disadvantages. Previously, the National Energy Administration found that although the advantages are obvious, the west is an energy base, and the electricity is already sufficient, so how to consume the electricity has become a problem. If these photovoltaic power generation is transmitted to the eastern power shortage provinces and cities over a long distance, all advantages will disappear

Lu Yanwu said that in the future, new energy power generation, including photovoltaic industry, is the general trend, which is also determined by China's resource endowment conditions and the environmental impact of environmental hydraulic pressure experiments. As for how to develop photovoltaic power generation industry, "in fact, we can learn some experience from European and American countries"

it is reported that before 2005, Germany's subsidy for photovoltaic power generation was more than 0.5 euros per kilowatt hour, up to nearly 1 euro. Power enterprises make it impossible for law-abiding enterprises to survive. After signing contracts with investors, including individual users, to build distributed photovoltaic power generation, because the electricity price is lower than the upper photovoltaic electricity price, the resulting positive benefits can be enjoyed by users or builders throughout the contract period. Under the guidance of interests, this mode has greatly promoted the rapid development of photovoltaic industry. Although subsidies have been gradually reduced in recent years, photovoltaic power generation can still be profitable and sustainable

Lu Yanwu pointed out, "The most important problem now is that we must solve the problems of overcapacity and low-cost competition in order to support the development of photovoltaic projects. The economy is so depressed, and it is difficult for the original thermal power enterprises and hydropower enterprises to survive. Will the development of photovoltaic power generation touch the interests of large power enterprise groups? Therefore, the country must show greater determination to develop photovoltaic production. 11. Timken experimental machine industry will have a broader development space." Zhonghua glass () Department

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